If you’ve become accustomed to finding ridiculously cheap Ryanair fares for a weekend away in Europe, there could be some turbulence ahead.

Ryanair has cut its passenger forecast and is scaling back its winter flying programme as the airline attempts to limit its exposure to dramatically higher fuel costs.

The airline now expects to carry 214 million passengers during its financial year ending March 2027, two million fewer than its previous target of 216 million.

But perhaps more interesting for those of us actually booking flights is Ryanair’s warning about what could happen next.

The airline believes that if oil prices remain high into summer 2027, short-haul airfares across Europe could rise considerably.

It all comes down to one of an airline’s biggest expenses: fuel.

Jet fuel is currently trading at around $140 per barrel, according to Ryanair, following a sharp increase in energy prices amid the conflict involving Iran.

Airlines can protect themselves against movements like this by hedging their fuel costs, effectively locking in prices ahead of time.

The good news for Ryanair is that it has already hedged around 80% of its fuel requirements through March 2027 at approximately $67 per barrel, putting it in a considerably better position than paying today's market price for all of its fuel.

The remaining unhedged portion is where things become more expensive.

As winter is traditionally a more difficult and less profitable period for European airlines, Ryanair has decided that flying fewer passengers makes more financial sense than exposing itself to even more expensive fuel.

Traffic between November 2026 and March 2027 is therefore expected to remain broadly flat compared with last year.

Dropping the annual forecast from 216 million to 214 million passengers might sound enormous, but in Ryanair terms it's a relatively modest adjustment.

This is, after all, an airline that carried 22.2 million passengers in August alone, up 6% compared with the same month last year.

Ryanair believes reducing its winter programme could cut its seasonal losses by somewhere between €70 million and €100 million.

The airline has already made some fairly substantial changes in certain markets too, including removing five aircraft from its Charleroi base and cutting two million seats from its Brussels schedules across winter 2026 and summer 2027.

This is the bit we're watching particularly closely at The Flight Edit.

Ryanair has warned that European short-haul fares could increase materially if high oil prices continue into summer 2027.

And there is some logic behind that.

If airlines have to pay substantially more for fuel, there are ultimately only so many places that additional cost can go.

Airlines can absorb some of it themselves, reduce flying on less profitable routes, or pass at least some of that additional cost onto passengers through higher fares.

There's another factor at play too.

Ryanair believes some competitors that haven't hedged as much of their fuel could struggle to maintain their current levels of flying if prices remain this high. The airline has even warned that some could struggle to survive the coming winter.

Fewer seats available across Europe would mean less competition for passengers, and potentially less pressure on airlines to offer those headline-grabbing fares we've become accustomed to.

Before we all start booking every European trip we're planning for 2027, it's worth putting this into perspective.

This isn't Ryanair announcing that fares are definitely about to increase.

It's a warning about what could happen if fuel prices remain elevated for a prolonged period.

Ryanair's summer operation is still growing. The airline expects to carry around 145 million passengers between April and October 2026, an increase of more than 5% compared with 138 million during the same period last year.

Fares during the current quarter are also trending modestly lower year-on-year.

So the era of the bargain European flight certainly isn't over just yet.

Ryanair might not be everyone's favourite airline, but there's no denying the impact it has had on the price of travelling around Europe.

When an airline of its size starts deliberately cutting capacity because of fuel costs, it's something worth paying attention to.

For passengers, the biggest question isn't really whether Ryanair carries 214 million or 216 million people this year. It's what happens if fuel remains around these levels as airlines begin selling more of their summer 2027 schedules.

Less capacity, struggling competitors and substantially higher fuel bills aren't exactly the perfect recipe for cheap flights.

For now, there are still plenty of bargains to be found.

But if you're planning several European trips next year, we'll be keeping a particularly close eye on fares here at The Flight Edit.